Matt Campbell Hired: 3 Reasons for Optimism, 2 Reasons He’s Just James Franklin with Better Big Game Wins

Some may be disappointed that Terry Smith wasn’t promoted to the top job, but history shows that it’s for the best.

Campbell and Penn State keeping Smith on staff is a major win for the Nittany Lions, both in the locker room, as well as on the field and the recruiting trail.

But, is Matt Campbell really the answer? Let’s look at why Penn State fans can be optimistic and why they might need to be worried.

Matt Campbell previously coached at Toledo and Iowa State, two losing programs.He molded those programs into winners. In the 10 seasons prior to Campbell’s hiring, Iowa best season (and only winning record) was 7-6. With Campbell at the helm, Iowa ranked in the AP Top 10 3 times, and in the top-25 in 7 out of 10 seasons.

Toledo’s record wasn’t quite so bad, with two winning seasons prior to Campbell, but a stretch of four consecutive losing seasons prior to that.It’s obvious that Campbell brings a steadiness and typically raises the floor and ceiling of any program that he’s been a part of.

And that’s without the resources that will be available to him at Penn State.

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Bridging the Gap: NFL Player Development Track Record

As has been discussed in previous articles, Penn State needs to be able to develop players.They can’t compete in the NIL market with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, and Indiana.

The key to bridging that gap is player development. Campbell has a decent reputation for developing recruits into NFL players.

Prior to Campbell’s tenure, Iowa State produced one NFL draftee every year or two. But during his time in Iowa, that number doubled and even quadrupled, producing multiple day 1-2 picks.

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Most important of all, Iowa State has frequently punched above its weight class.

James Franklin was torn apart, year after year, for losing in the big games.

Matt Campbell, on the other hand, beat No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 4 TCU in his second season. Oh, and Iowa State beat Oregon in 2021.

All in all, Campbell leaves Iowa State with the most wins, the highest AP rank, and first first-place finish in conference play in school history.

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2 Reasons Penn State Should Be Concerned About Matt Campbell

The Ceiling Question: Can He Survive the New, Deeper B1G?

How much is Campbell really going to raise the ceiling of this program?

Even when the Cyclones took down the third and fourth-ranked teams, they finished the season at 8-5.

Campbell wins big games, but can he consistently take care of the games that Penn State is supposed to win? In the B1G, there’s no getting away with 2+ losses. Campbell won’t last if he can’t make an immediate and significant impact in the CFP arena.

Besides, the B1G is now the deepest it’s ever been. What worked against Big 12 defenses may not translate against B1G opponents.

Additionally, which of Franklin’s weaknesses does Campbell really improve upon?

Franklin offenses always left a lot to be desired, especially in the passing game.

In fact, Penn State’s passing offense is behind Iowa State’s this season. Still, neither offense is even close to the top 25 in most passing categories.

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Recruiting and Offense: Where Does Campbell Truly Upgrade Franklin?

Matt Campbell just set a new standard for Iowa State when it comes to recruiting.

Iowa State’s 2026 class is ranked 48th nationally.

While that’s likely not good enough for the B1G, it’s better than Penn State’s 2026 class, which has been poached repeatedly by James Franklin and VA Tech.

Perhaps it is also a good sign that Campbell is growing as a recruiter.

Cleaning Up the Mess: Why Expectations Must Wait Until 2027

But in the end, recruiting is going to be key to Penn State’s ability to compete. This team has to be able to get a top 25 class to compete with the other college football titans. Franklin was a great recruiter, and Campbell has to, at a minimum, match that.

Let’s also not forget the NIL side of things. Iowa State certainly lacked resources. Penn State is a huge upgrade in this regard. Campbell has to capitalize on that.

Where Does This Leave Penn State?

Only time will tell whether Matt Campbell is a good hire for Penn State.

But, if Campbell can continue to show the growth that we saw at Iowa State, this program might be in a good place in a year or three.

Because of Franklin ravaging the 2026 class, Campbell is taking over a mess that must be cleaned up quickly. Expectations shouldn’t be too high for 2026, but if things don’t turn around in 2027, there will be cause for concern.