Penn State’s SP+ Matches Historic Nittany Lions Squad: What Could it Mean for 2024?

Penn State Football enters the 2024 season with high hopes of reaching the program’s first College Football Playoff.

After a second consecutive 10-2 regular season in 2023 (and fifth in James Franklin’s 10-year tenure at Penn State), the Nittany Lions will look to break through to get the elusive 11^th regular season win this season. The schedule matches up favorably for the Nittany Lions to do so, with the Nittany Lions betting favorites in all but one game this fall at the moment.

Another metric could be telling on just how good this 2024 Nittany Lions squad could be.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly posted the final 2024 SP+ projections for the 2024 season last week. Penn State’s projection for 2024 is 26.1, meaning Penn State is projected to be 26.1 points per game better than the average FBS team this season.

Penn State’s ranking puts the 2024 Nittany Lions in rare air, matching up with one of the best teams in the James Franklin era, the 2017 Nittany Lions.

The 2017 Nittany Lions were initially power-rated +21.4 points, but finished the season +26.0 points after an 11-2 season losing two games by a combined four points and winning the Fiesta Bowl over Washington, James Franklin’s first New Year’s Six Bowl win.

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Can Penn State Football Live Up to Lofty 2024 Expectations?

Despite having one of the best offenses in the Big Ten statistically last season, Penn State Football still has plenty of room to improve under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki this season.

Penn State returns a very promising junior cohort of quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive ends Dani Dennis-Sutton and Abdul Carter, and safety KJ Winston to anchor the 2024 team.

ESPN’s SP+ uses past success, returning production at specific positions, and recruiting to determine how well a team will play. “It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking.”

If the Nittany Lions play up to their SP+ projection this season, James Franklin’s squad could be looking at not only their first college football playoff appearance, but also could challenge for the Big Ten and national championship in 2024. It will be imperative for the Nittany Lions to capitalize this season, as most of the junior cohort mentioned above could be headed out to the NFL draft after this season.

MORE: Top Penn State Stars Already on Senior Bowl Director’s Radar

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