Quarterback Rocco Becht says he already sees evidence of the culture Penn State Football head coach Matt Campbell is trying to build in Happy Valley. (Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images)
Last season, entering Week 1, Penn State Football had an over-under win total of 10.5. We all know the results of the 2025 season.
The 2025 campaign was a total disappointment for the Nittany Lions, resulting in James Franklin being relieved of his duties after nearly 12 seasons in Happy Valley, leading to interim head coach Terry Smith capturing the hearts and minds of not only the state of Pennsylvania but the entire sport.
While Penn State rebounded, finishing the season up strong with seven wins at the finish line.
Turning the Page: Dawn of the Matt Campbell Era for Penn State Football
As this season approaches, the Lions’ projected win total is lower, but could Penn State actually exceed expectations?
When determining how a season might turn out, there are two obvious factors you must measure before predicting.
First, it is how much talent the roster has, and then the talent each opponent on the schedule possesses.
Let’s take a look at the Penn State roster first.
2026 Penn State Roster Breakdown: Is the Talent There?
The Quarterback position and the tight end group should be the strength of the offense.
Rocco Becht will be entering his final collegiate season, and with two healthy shoulders and the most amount of talent surrounding him, it’s fair to expect this will be his strongest collegiate season.
Penn State has the best overall tight end room in the conference, if not the nation.
The Nittany Lions landed the top tight end in the portal, Benjamin Brahmer, and also added the 14th-best tight end in Gabe Burkle. Andrew Rappleyea will be entering his third season with the Nittany Lions, and he’s primed for a breakout season.
That trio will be a main focus of the offense
Offensive Line: High Ceilings and Five-Star Pedigrees
The offensive line has both a high ceiling and floor in 2026.
At best, Penn State’s line they could possibly be a top-3 or so group in the Big Ten.
The projected starters entering fall camp are Malachi Goodman (LT), Trevor Buhr (LG), Brock Riker (C), Cooper Cousins (RG) and Anthony Donkoh (RT).
That group features two former 5-star recruits, one of, if not the best guard in the Big 12 last year, a top-sought-after center, and then a future NFL draft pick in Donkoh.
How it will all come together and gel will determine the heights this group can reach.
Wide Receivers & Running Backs: Explosive Potential with Fresh Transfer Faces
The Wide Receiver room and running back room have very similar feels.
Both are loaded with talent but come with a few question marks.
At wide receiver, the starting trio entering the season makes this as optimistic as the program should be at receiver in at least a half-decade.
Chase Sowell is a prototype split end possessing elite size and speed.
Sowell is a season away from being an early-round pick.
His partner in crime last season also came over to Penn State during the offseason.
Brett Eskildsen is a super versatile receiver and really turned into Becht’s go-to wide out last year at times.
Koby Howard fills out the starting trio, and he’s as talented as any true sophomore WR in the nation. A breakout season is looming.
At running back Penn State has four quality ball carriers who possess different skill sets.
All four are Power 4 capable starting players.
Carson Hansen is more of a physical back who came over from Iowa State, where he rushed for 952 yards and six touchdowns.
James Peoples came over from Ohio State and was a former four-star top back in his class.
The speedy, well-built running back has superstar potential. Quinton Martin Jr decided to stay at Penn State and has everything you want in a three-down running back. He can run inside and outside the tackles, catch the ball out of the backfield, and has home run speed.
Martin had a breakout performance against Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl last December.
Cam Wallace provides extraordinary depth at the position who’s battled injuries and stuck in a log Jam but has P4 traits.
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A Brand New Scheme: Rebuilding the Nittany Lions Defense
The defense in 2026 is very similar to the offense.
Some really strong position groups and then a few positions that need to prove it, not due to lack of talent but experience.
Unlike the offense, every player on this side of the ball will be learning a brand new scheme as well.
Linebacker Room: A Stacked, Super-Productive Rotation
The linebacker room is absolutely stacked.
In fact, there is so much talent that it will mean a few really good Power 4 starting players will have to sacrifice playing time just due to the fact that there’s not enough snaps to go around.
It will be very interesting to see how it’s worked out by linebackers coach Tyson Veidt and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
Penn State Football brought over Iowa State’s highly productive trio of Caleb Bacon, Kooper Ebel, and Cael Brezina.
This is a very fun, highly productive group. It’s A trio carrying this much talent would be enough to be excited about, but Penn State also brought back their best linebacker Tony Rojas.
Rojas has superstar potential and will be playing on Sundays shortly, and if he can stay healthy, could pile up awards.
The fifth, but as exciting as all backer in the starting rotation is true sophomore Alex Tatsch.
Tatsch is rehabbing a late-season injury but is expected to be back around mid-September.
Keep an eye out for a Cam Smith welcome party as well.
Smith was a top-20 4-star LB in 2025 and is very close to reaching the field, and when he does, he won’t be sitting very much, but that might have to wait until 2027.
Defensive Backfield & Corners: Lock-Down Secondary Depth
The Nittany Lions defensive backfield is as strong as any group on the roster in 2026.
Just like at the linebacker position you are going to have starting quality talent not having as many snaps on the football field as they should due to a robustly stacked room.
Marcus Neal Jr is the player fans should be most excited about.
Neal jr is as good a box safety as there is in the sport.
Lining up with Neal in 2 deep sets should be Jeremiah Cooper, with Jamison Patton also being on the field in Cover 3s.
The fourth safety in the mix is the talented redshirt sophomore, Vaboue Toure.
There’s been some talk about Zion Tracy also getting some time at safety, but until we see it, it’s best to slot him in at the position he’s been playing thus far at cornerback.
Omarion Davis transferred in from Boston College, and it won’t be long until he starts.
Bryson Williams and Christian Askew are true freshman who flipped their commitments and followed secondary coach Deon Broomfield to Happy Valley.
This is a very deep and talented room.
The cornerback position has a very strong starting trio.
True sophomore sensation Daryus Dixson will try to build off his impressive freshman campaign, with Audavion Collins being the other outside corner.
Tracy is one of the best nickelbacks in America.
This trio is as good as any in the conference. The next man up would be Jahmir Joseph, who had limited playing time last season, but when he got his opportunities, he shined including a pick six, and a lockdown performance against Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Josh Johnson, Hunter Sowell, IBN McDaniels, and Xxavier Thomas are all quality depth players, with Tyrell Chatman and Josiah Zayas coming into their true freshman seasons.
At the defensive tackle position, there was a clear strategy with the new staff, and it was a mission accomplished.
No longer will Penn State Football suit up smaller twitchy sub-300 D linemen, instead, will go back to a traditional look at the position.
Keanu Williams, Dallas Vakalahi, and Siale Taupaki all transferred in and define the new era at the position, weighing in over 330 pounds.
Zane Durant was 6-foot-1 and 290 pounds, but starting at the same position, will now be the 6-foot-5 330 pound Keanu Williams will play this season.
Armstrong Nnodim is another transfer player at the position, but early intel suggests he will play interior and also at the edge, but his impact will be shown whether it’s on the inside or outside.
Ty Blanding, Liam Andrews, De’Andre Cook, and Caleb Brewer are all holdovers from the last regime and have had positive words said about them during the spring.
What used to be an absolute every season, this will be two years in a row where Penn State enters the season with big question marks at the edge position.
This season, though, seems to have a bit more clarity, due to the change in the scheme.
Just like at defensive tackle, the defensive end position will look totally different as well.
Penn State will have two separate types of ways they are attacking the position.
Lynn will have a more traditional defensive end for most of the snaps, then rotating pass-rushing specialist for obvious passing downs.
The more traditional defensive ends come with much more size.
The example is getting back to Armstrong Nnodim, at 6-foot-2 and 320 pounds, getting snaps at edge during the spring.
This bodes well for guys like Yvan Kemajou and Jackson Ford. Two bigger-bodied physical defensive ends.
Max Granville is coming back from a season-ending injury, so time will tell how productive he will be in 2026, but no player in the room has more talent than Granville.
Ikenna Ezeogu followed Matt Campbell over from Iowa State, and will see plenty of time on the field, firing that new look at the position perfectly.
One of the most exciting transfer adds in the spring was Alex McPherson, who came over from Colorado and provided a serious rush off the edge.
Lavar Arrington II and Dayshaun Burnett are both from the 2025 class, and both will be battling to see snaps this season, rushing the passer.
This position group has the potential to be as good as any position on the roster, but they lack experience, so until the games start, defensive end remains the most questionable yet consequential position.
2026 Penn State Football Schedule Analysis & Game-by-Game Predictions
The second part of the equation comes, and that is looking at the schedule and determining how many games the Nittany Lions should be favored in and have a strong chance of winning.
The non-conference schedule should be very easy to begin the season.
Penn State opens the season up against Marshall at home before heading to Philadelphia to play Temple, finishing up back home against Buffalo.
Marshall and Buffalo at home should be first-half blowouts.
Temple should be a decisive victory, but with it being an in-state rivalry against a much-improved Owls team being led by transfer and former Penn State QB Jaxon Smolik, this game could become one of those frustrating first-half performances that slowly but surely turn into a victory by three scores, or more.
Big Ten Gauntlet: Key Tests Against USC, Michigan, and a Northwestern Revenge Game
Conference play opens up with a mysterious Wisconsin coming into Beaver Stadium.
The Badgers’ win over under for the season is 6.5, which is telling based on having a rather easy schedule.
Penn State is arguably their second or third hardest game, and it might wind up being their closest. It will be Matt Campbell’s introduction to the Big Ten, and not only his but half the roster and staff.
At home with a frenzied crowd, this should be a game the Nittany Lions expect to win.
The following week, Penn State travels to Illinois to play Northwestern, and for the returning players on the roster, this game will likely have a little bit more meaning to them.
Last year, of course, the Wildcats shocked the Lions inside Beaver stadium resulting in Franklin’s firing the next afternoon, so you could say this is a mini revenge game for parts of the team.
Just like against Wisconsin, this is a game Penn State should expect to win, even if Campbell’s team doesn’t win any style points in the process.
The following two weeks will determine how real this roster is in 2026.
That’s when the Nittany Lions face USC at home, before traveling up north to Michigan.
The last time Penn State played the Trojans, it was a classic with Drew Allar leading the Lions back for a multi-score deficit ending with a late field goal sealing the comeback.
Michigan has been a thorn in Penn State’s side the last couple matchups, and with the game being played at the Big House, this one isn’t going to be easy.
Let’s say Penn State splits the two games, and enters its bye week with a 6-1 record.
Halloween, Purdue comes into State College, and with Penn State coming off the bye licking its wounds, this could turn into a convincing win over the Boilermakers.
Washington and Minnesota are the Nittany Lions’ next two opponents, with a trip to Seattle before welcoming the Gophers.
Just like the USC-Michigan stretch, it’s probably a safe bet to say Penn State splits those two games, resulting in an 8-2 record.
Rutgers comes into town on November 21st, and history shows the Lions should get through the matchup with a win.
Finally, Penn State’s closing game of the season will be a trip down to Maryland to duke it out with the Terrapins.
Maryland could be a surprising team this season.
True sophomore Malik Washington had a pretty solid freshman season last year, and could take a step forward in his second campaign.
This game could go either way, with Penn State fighting for a possible Playoff spot, with Maryland fighting for a better bowl game.
Let’s say Maryland upsets the Nittany Lions with a late score.
Final Verdict: What is Penn State’s Realistic Win Total in 2026?
All in all, going through each game and comparing rosters, Penn State should be favored in at least 9 of their 12 matchups this season.
USC , Michigan, and then away at Washington are the three that PSU could be possible underdog games, and in all three games, Penn State will enter the contest with an equal to if not better roster.
There could also be growing pains as a new staff and a roster with significant turnover will have to catch up to speed as they play in a much better conference, but there is no reason to believe Rocco Becht couldn’t be leading his team into battle down in Maryland looking to seal their playoff hopes.
At worst, the Nittany Lions should be in a position to win eight games, and if everything lines up correctly, it shouldn’t be shocking to anyone if this team pulls out 10 or even 11 wins by season’s end.
The offense should be a strength of this team right away, with the defense slowly but surely coming on strong and learning the new system and how to play with fresh teammates.
It’s still a long way until kickoff in September, but the expectation should be that the 2026 season is a fun, and productive first of the Campbell era.
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He started a successful Penn State Football account on X a little over a year and a half ago.
Tapped into recruiting both regionally and nationally, Ed graduated Rowan University with a Journalism degree.
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