Penn State football head coach Matt Campbell is getting to work on the recruiting trail. (Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images)
What does success look like as the Matt Campbell era of Penn State Football begins?
It won’t be fair to expect a national championship in 2026, after the program failed to come close to expectations in James Franklin‘s final season in 2025.
A B1G championship? Probably not.
But, here are three indicators that things are on the right track over the next couple of seasons.
Matt Campbell Blueprint: 3 Indicators of Success for the 2026 Nittany Lions
As Campbell arrives, with a hoard of familiar faces from Iowa State, via the transfer portal, and some high-priced returning talent remaining from last season’s Nittany Lions roster, there is a reasonable path for the College Football Playoff to return to Happy Valley.
Indicator #1: Roster Retention & Portal Balance
For a program to succeed, there must be player buy-in.
For the most part, players stuck around at Penn State under James Franklin. At least, there wasn’t an abnormal number of post-season transfers.
However, we recently saw a slew of wide receivers bail at the same time, and there was a mass exodus to Blacksburg — and other destinations this offseason, following Franklin’s departure last fall.
If Campbell can retain players and even demonstrate that they want to play for him at Penn State (by staying or transferring to the university), that’s a great sign of success. Matt Campbell showed this at Iowa State.
What to watch
- Low number of unexpected portal departures after spring and post-season.
- Penn State retaining core contributors, especially:
- QB
- Offensive line
- Defensive front seven
Why it matters
- It’s all about player buy-in. It’s a key early indicator.
Indicator #2: Offensive Identity Becomes Clear
Can Penn State do more than run the ball?
In modern football, a balanced and complementary offense is essential.
Penn State Football has always been known for smashmouth, run-it-down-your-throat football, but that can get you into trouble if your passing game was left at home and you’re down early in a big game.
That became painfully obvious with the lack of production from the wide receiver position the past two seasons, but becomes a major question with program-defining backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen each off to the NFL.
An early sign of success for Campbell and company would be a creative offense that keeps opponents guessing.
The actual success of the offense could take a couple of years, as it takes time to develop or obtain the right offensive pieces.
What to watch
- Fewer wasted possessions and pre-snap confusion.
- Increased use of motion, tight ends, and situational creativity.
- Red-zone efficiency improving before raw scoring numbers do.
Why it matters
- A staff finding its offensive identity quickly shows confidence and competency. Major green flag.
- Elite programs know who they are offensively, even before elite execution arrives.
Indicator #3: Quarterback Development
To get the offense running smoothly, the Nittany Lions need a quarterback who can truly be the captain of the offense.
Not just a game manager, but a playmaker.
In the world of Julian Sayins, Fernando Mendozas, and Dante Moores, Penn State needs more from its QB.
Part of that will be offensive playcalling and scheming, but the quarterback development is also a large part of the equation.
Star quarterbacks don’t grow on trees. In the current NIL landscape, they must be developed. That’s where loyalty is built.
Rocco Becht has a finite timeline, with just one remaining season of eligibility. How Campbell and staff are able to develop the quarterback position in 2026 and beyond could dictate how lofty the ceiling is for this Nittany Lions program.
What to watch
- Improved anticipation, decisiveness, and situational awareness.
- Fewer “hero ball” moments on 3rd down.
- Efficiency metrics (completion %, TD-INT ratio) trending upward.
Why it matters
- Penn State will struggle to win the NIL battle for top quarterbacks
- Campbell and Mouser’s offense will be defined by what they unlock at QB.
How to Judge the First Two Years Fairly
Campbell had plenty of success at Iowa State.
Penn State, outside of last season, has had success in recent years, including a run to the College Football Playoff semifinals, in 2024.
With that backdrop, it will be hard to give Matt Campbell time to implement his system. But even with the Cyclones, Campbell took a couple of years to really grow into the Top 25.
However, if we reframe expectations and look for the building blocks of a solid foundation for the Nittany Lions, we just might see success a bit sooner.
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- “Beyond the Hype”: 3 Signs Matt Campbell is Already Fixing Penn State’s Biggest Flaws - February 12, 2026
- Tight End Guru: 3 Things to Know About Taylor Mouser, Matt Campbell’s New Penn State Offensive Coordinator - December 11, 2025
- Matt Campbell Hired: 3 Reasons for Optimism, 2 Reasons He’s Just James Franklin with Better Big Game Wins - December 6, 2025
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