Betting Line Moves Away from Penn State Football Ahead of Orange Bowl
Penn State Football is just two days away from facing off against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl with a trip to the national championship on the line. However, if Penn State wants to earn the opportunity to compete for the program’s first national championship since 1986, the Nittany Lions will need to do something that they have not done since 2021, win as an underdog.
After Notre Dame defeated Georgia in the Sugar Bowl last week, Penn State opened as a 1.5-point underdog to the Fighting Irish ahead of the College Football Playoff semifinal Orange Bowl.
Now two days before kickoff, the betting line is moving further away from the Nittany Lions, ahead of the most important game of the season.
On Tuesday, BetMGM and FanDuel sportsbook moved Penn State from a 1.5 to a 2.5-point underdog in the Orange Bowl.
What Betting Line Movement Means for Penn State Football
According to BetMGM’s John Ewing, 69 percent of the bets and 73 percent of the money on the Orange Bowl is on Notre Dame to cover the spread against the Nittany Lions at BetMGM’s sportsbook.
For moneyline bets, 55 percent of the bets and 39 percent of the money are on Penn State at +115 odds on BetMGM sportsbook. The total for the Orange Bowl has fallen from 50.5 to 45.5, with 74 percent of the bets and 67 percent of the money on the under.
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According to FanDuel sportsbook, Penn State has the lowest odds out of the remaining four semifinal teams to win the national championship this season.
Penn State’s odds to win the next two games and claim the program’s first consensus national championship since 1986 is +550. Penn State’s Orange Bowl opponent Notre Dame sits just higher at +470. Big Ten rival Ohio State is the betting favorite to win the national championship this season at -140 odds.
Penn State is 13-2 on the season ahead of the Orange Bowl. In those 15 games, Penn State is 8-7 against the spread and 0-2 outright as an underdog. In fact, Penn State has not won a game as an underdog since week one of the 2021 season against Wisconsin. Over the past three seasons, Penn State head coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have a record of 34-7 overall. Over that span, the Nittany Lions are 34-1 as a betting favorite and 0-6 as a betting underdog.
If Penn State wants to keep their season alive, the Nittany Lions must find a way to win outright as an underdog for the first time in 53 games. If the Nittany Lions are to upset Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl, the Nittany Lions would need to win another game as an underdog to win the national championship this season.
According to FanDuel sportsbook’s hypothetical betting odds, Penn State would be a 10.5-point underdog to Ohio State in a November 2 rematch against the Buckeyes and a 3.5-point underdog to Texas.
Penn State and Notre Dame will kick off at 7:30 p.m. Thursday with a trip to the national championship on the line.
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