Fiesta Bowl: 3 Reasons Penn State Football Should be Confident, 3 reasons to Worry vs. Boise State

On New Year’s Eve, Penn State Football take on the Boise State Broncos in the second round of the College Football Playoff at the Fiesta Bowl.

These two teams have a combined record of 10-0 in the Fiesta Bowl, all-time, but only one team can emerge with the perfect record, and here’s a case for each team to advance in the playoff.

Why Penn State Football Wins

Penn State finally won a big game and has momentum

Has Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin finally overcome the issue of always losing in the big games?

Penn State blew SMU out of the water (and the College Football Playoff) in the first round. That certainly wasn’t a small game. Penn State Football has been in the Fiesta Bowl before so this isn’t unfamiliar territory. Momentum is a funny thing in sports, because it really makes a difference and Penn State definitely has some after walloping SMU in the first round. They’re ready to keep rolling.

Penn State’s passing game

Penn State Football, Drew Allar — Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images)

Tyler Warren has taken over Penn State’s passing game this year, to the tune of 1095 yards. Let me speak plainly here … Boise State’s defense has an incredible pass rush but they can’t cover receivers. Need I say more?

Okay, okay, I will. They have shown some improvement lately, but it likely won’t be enough to keep up with Tyler Warren.

3. Penn State shut down SMU’s run game

The Penn State defense is ranked No. 7 in the country in rush yards allowed per game and it showed against SMU.

Tom Allen‘s unit shut down Brashard Smith, allowing only 62 yards to a 1200-yard back. It was quite obvious that taking away the running game befuddled SMU and that is the same recipe to be used on Boise State.

If Ashton Jeanty is shut down, the game is over for Boise State.

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Why Boise State Wins

1. Underdog mentality

If BSU wins, thank the Heisman voters, Travis Hunter fans, and Ashton Jeanty haters. Many are wondering if Jeanty’s miraculous season was just a product of playing in the Mountain West. Jeanty is going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder and he has a lot to prove. Expect some ferocity.

2. Boise State’s history in Fiesta Bowls

Fiesta Bowl, College Football Playoff — Dec 6, 2024; Boise, ID, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) during the first half against the UNLV Rebels at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-Imagn Images

Speaking of underdogs, in every Fiesta Bowl the Broncos have ever played in, they’ve been the underdogs. Yet, they’ve never lost. The Broncos seem to channel the underdog mentality into in-game performance quite well. Boise State’s win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl at the end of the 2006 season is a prime example.

3. Recent strides in passing game on offense and defense

In the Mountain West Championship, Boise State dominated in all phases of the game.

Maddux Madsen has shown signs of big play ability and is connecting with receivers more consistently. His receivers are dropping fewer passes and seem more comfortable. On the other side, Boise State cornerback A’Marion McCoy has been constantly attacked all year long and tends to give up a lot of big plays. But like Madsen, he’s shown great improvement. He shut down UNLV’s Ricky White and has played well for the last few games.

This game hinges on which Boise State passing game shows up for both the offense and defense.