Penn State Football clocked in with a No. 4 ranking in the College Football Playoff Committee’s week 13 rankings.
The top five remained static in CFP’s week 13 rankings with Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, PSU, and IU going in that order. And with the CFP’s myriad (read: incredibly dumb) set of rules, the Nittany Lions would be hypothetically hosting Georgia in the first round with a No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup.
Penn State only has two games remaining on their regular season schedule. Assuming nothing catastrophic happens and the Nittany Lions get past both Minnesota and Maryland, they look to be a lock to make the top 12 in the CFP.
So, based on this, an intriguing question comes to mind: What would Penn State’s ideal CFP matchup be?
But before we dive into that, there’s something important we need to sort out first. Not everyone’s definition of “ideal” is the same.
Some people believe the ideal matchup would be the “biggest” matchup. Therefore they want to see Penn State go up against the biggest brand.
Other people might see an “ideal” matchup being against an old rival or possibly a revenge game against a team who the Nittany Lions haven’t beaten in a while. Unfortunately, this list might be quite lengthy.
But, that’s a discussion for another day.
Breaking Down Penn State’s Ideal Matchup
Now, when I look at Penn State’s “ideal” matchup, it can mean one thing and one thing only. If the goal at the end of the year is to win a national championship, then that’s pretty darn hard to do if you lose in the opening round.
So in this case my “ideal” opponent for the Nittany Lions is one in which they can beat … If you catch my drift.
Now, before you go off the deep end and say that a program like Penn State “should” be able to win against the likes of Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama. And, that it’s a “loser mentality” to not expect James Franklin to win games against top-5 opponents.
That’s fine. You can think all of those things.
However, there’s a massive gulf between what Penn State “should do” and what they’ve actually done. Like it or not, that’s called reality. And, reality is not something intangible or subjective or something that can be construed.
Nope. Reality is a concrete, no-doubt-about it fact.
So let’s take a shot of some burning reality and look at the Nittany Lions’ losses in each of the past four seasons.
Penn State losses 2021-2024
2021 No. 3 Iowa (39)
2021 No. 5 Ohio State (5.8)
2021 No. 9 Michigan (11.3)
2021 No. 12 Michigan State (34.8)
2021 No. 22 Arkansas (31)
2022 No. 5 Michigan (13.3)
2022 No. 2 Ohio State (5.8)
2023 No. 3 Ohio State (6.3)
2023 No. 2 Michigan (10)
2023 No. 11 Ole Miss (25.3)
2024 No. 4 Ohio State (3.8)
The number you see in parentheses is each team’s average recruiting rankings from the previous four recruiting classes prior to the year of the season (based on 247 Sports rankings). So Iowa’s average in 2021 is based on their recruiting rankings from 2017-2020.
Additionally, the average recruiting ranking for the above losses is 16.9. Obviously, the largest deviations from the mean are losses to Iowa, Michigan State, and Arkansas, but the end result isn’t skewed a ton.
Now, let’s look at Penn State’s “biggest wins” from the last four years. This list can be subjective, hence the quotes around “biggest wins.” However, I had to try to compile a sample size relative to the size of the losses category to make it more apples-to-apples.
Penn State “biggest wins” 2021-2024
2021 No. 12 Wisconsin (34.8)
2021 No. 22 Auburn (9.8)
2022 No. 7 Utah (35.3)
2023 West Virginia (40.5)
2023 No. 24 Iowa (35)
2024 West Virginia (40.5)
2024 No. 19 Illinois (59.8)
2024 USC (36)
This comes out to an average of 36.4 in terms of recruiting rank.
For additional context here is Penn State’s four-year recruiting average for each of the years.
2021 Penn State (12)
2022 Penn State (13.5)
2023 Penn State (13.5)
2024 Penn State (14)
So what does my wall of numbers mean?
It’s fairly simple.
Penn State under James Franklin will pretty much always beat a team when they are head and shoulders above their competition. This is commonly referred to as “PSU out-athlete’ing” their competition.
And conversely, when Penn State under James Franklin does not have a decided advantage of having a better roster than their opponent, they lose.
Period. End of discussion.
So back to Penn State’s “ideal” CFP matchup. Which of the following teams do you feel deep down in your heart that the Nittany Lions can beat? And no, this isn’t about what they “should” do or what you “expect” them to do.
Which teams do they have a prayer against?
Possible CFP Opponents
Here’s a look at the most likely opponents to head up to Beaver Stadium for the first round of the College Football Playoff:
Georgia (2.5)
Alabama (1.5)
Ole Miss (25.5)
Tennessee (15)
BYU (69)
SMU (68.5)
Boise St (65.5)
I don’t know about you, but the answer is pretty obvious.
If the Nittany Lions make this year’s CFP, then their only reasonable way to make it out of the first round is to get matched up against an opponent they can manhandle.
So give me BYU, SMU, or Boise State everyday of the week. That would be my “ideal” matchup.
MORE: Recapping Drew Allar’s Most Efficient Game in a Penn State Uniform
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Education: Penn State University
Location: State College, PA
Even though he had no prior journalism experience, Chris has now covered Penn State Wrestling and Penn State Football for the past three years, including as the Penn State Wrestling Beat Writer for VictoryBellRings.com, part of the FanSided network.
And it's clear he also likes constant torture as he's been a PSU Basketball fan for way too long.
Several years back, Chris made the seamless transition from PGA Professional to computer programmer and thoroughly enjoys following and writing about all things related to Penn State sports during his spare time.
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