Penn State Football Updated Game-by-Game Predictions: Can James Franklin Salvage the 2025 Season?
It’s five games into the 2025 season, and Penn State Football has been off to a disastrous start.
The Nittany Lions currently sit at 3-2. The rest of the year can go one of two extremes. The first way would be to let the UCLA and Oregon losses spiral the season out of control. Losing 2-4 more games, losing the locker room, and cleaning house at the end of the year.
The second extreme would be that James Franklin can rally the team around these losses, and make the best of the rest of the year, going on a motivated tear throughout the rest of season, and an improbable College Football Playoff berth.
With that in mind, here are the chances Penn State has of winning each of its remaining games.
Penn State Football Revised Game-By-Game Predictions
Game 6: Vs. Northwestern
Truthfully, this game will likely set the tone for how salvageable the rest of the year is.
It feels like Penn State will be able to snap the losing streak at home and get a win. Northwestern doesn’t have the Quarterback play required to beat a team as talented as Penn State. That being said, it seems like all bets could be off. Either way, this game will provide crucial insight into how the rest of the year will go.
The Nittany Lions’ chances of beating Northwestern are: 80%
Game 7: At Iowa
This game will be a good test for Franklin and company.
Going to Kinnick at night is never easy, the Hawkeyes consistently take good teams to the wire there.
If Iowa had a better showing on offense, this game would get way scarier for Penn State. The Nittany Lions should again have a speed, size and overall talent advantage over Iowa. Despite all of these advantages, the home Kinnick Stadium crowd can never be counted out.
The Nittany Lions chances of beating Iowa are: 55%
Game 8: At Ohio State
This is the marquee game remaining on the Penn State schedule.
Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, they have struggled to beat Ohio State, and Ohio State looks really good this year. Again.
Going on the road to Ohio Stadium just makes Penn State’s chance of beating the Buckeyes look even more bleak.
This game will be a colossal task for Penn State. The path to a Nittany Lion victory is if James Franklin, his staff, and his players throw caution to the win and come out playing like there’s nothing to lose. On top of that, they still would have to execute at an extremely high mark to pull off the upset.
The Nittany Lions chances of beating Ohio State are: 15%
Game 9: Vs. Indiana
If Penn State somehow comes home with a win over the Buckeyes, this game becomes astronomically more winnable.
However, a loss to Ohio State could make this game even tougher.
Either way, Indiana will present plenty of challenges for Penn State. If things go well for the Hoosiers between now and this game vs. Penn State, Indiana could be in the top 5.
At a minimum, Indiana will likely be well within the top 25. Curt Cignetti’s high-flying offense will test Penn State’s will in this one.
The Nittany Lions chances of beating Indiana are: 50%
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Game 10: At. Michigan State
The Spartans could be a much sneakier team than meets the eye.
That being said, Penn State should be able to win this one no matter what happens in the prior two games. This game could become a nasty late season game with bad weather.
That would bode well for Michigan State. At the end of the day, the Nittany Lions should be able to take care of buisness.
The Nittany Lions chances of beating Michigan State are: 65%
Game 11: Vs. Nebraska
The Matt Rhule homecoming game should be entertaining.
Is Nebraska legit, or not? That will likely determine this game. The Huskers should be firmly in the top half of the Big Ten at this point of the year, and that’s nothing to scoff at. With that being said, Nebraska probably doesn’t pose as big of a threat as some may have thought to start the year.
The Nittany Lions chances of beating Nebraska are: 65%
Game 12: At Rutgers
Rutgers is coming off a bowl game appearance and seemed to have things going in the right direction. However, they have really struggled against the Big Ten.
This game might be the most likely win for Penn State left on the schedule. It feels like even if things spiral that far out of control, Penn State should be able to come together for one last game and beat the Scarlet Knights.
The Nittany Lions chances of beating Rutgers are: 85%
If these percentages hold true, Penn State will finish the year 9-3 with losses to Oregon, UCLA, and Ohio State, on the outside looking in at the College Football Playoff, after going all-in on chasing a National Championship last offseason.
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Purdy was born and raised in central Ohio and served for four years writing for his high school's newsletter. Currently studying Biblical Studies at Lancaster Bible College in Pennsylvania, Ian has been a lifelong Nittany Lion fan.
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