Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith has garnered the support of fans, letterman, and Nittany Lions players to become the program's next head coach. (Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images)
James Franklin is gone, and Terry Smith is temporarily in. But after Penn State demolished Nebraska, many are calling for Smith to be the future of this program. The fanbase is torn between two instincts:
Stability or ambition?
Continuity or reset?
Safe internal promotion or proven outsider?
Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft must weigh the benefits, and the risks when potentially hiring a first-time head coach, as the Nittany Lions‘ search for Franklin’s replacement continues.
Penn State Is at a Crossroads After James Franklin’s Firing
Let’s look at what history has to say about what the future could hold if Penn State hires Terry Smith, who has no previous head coaching experience.
| Year | Champion & Coach | Year at the program when they won | Prior head-coaching experience? | Notes |
| 2000 | Oklahoma – Bob Stoops | 2nd year | No (first-time HC) | Stoops hired Dec 1998, won in Year 2 |
| 2001 | Miami – Larry Coker | 1st year | No (first-time HC) | Promoted from OC, inherited greatest roster ever |
| 2002 | Ohio State – Jim Tressel | 2nd year | Yes | Youngstown State (D-I AA titles) |
| 2003 | LSU – Nick Saban | 4th year | Yes | Toledo 1990 |
| 2004 | USC – Pete Carroll | 4th year | Yes | NFL (Patriots, Jets) |
| 2005 | Texas – Mack Brown | 8th year | Yes | Tulane, others |
| 2006 | Florida – Urban Meyer | 2nd year | Yes | Utah (Fiesta Bowl) |
| 2007 | LSU – Les Miles | 3rd year | Yes | Oklahoma State |
| 2008 | Florida – Urban Meyer | Repeat (4th year) | Yes | |
| 2009 | Alabama – Nick Saban | 3rd year | Yes | LSU, Michigan State |
| 2010 | Auburn – Gene Chizik | 2nd year | Yes | Iowa State |
| 2011 | Alabama – Nick Saban | Repeat (5th year) | Yes | |
| 2012 | Alabama – Nick Saban | Repeat (6th year) | Yes | |
| 2013 | Florida State – Jimbo Fisher | 4th year | No (first-time HC) | Promoted from OC/successor-in-waiting |
| 2014 | Ohio State – Urban Meyer | 3rd year | Yes | Florida, Utah |
| 2015 | Alabama – Nick Saban | Repeat (9th year) | Yes | |
| 2016 | Clemson – Dabo Swinney | 8th year | No (first-time HC) | Promoted from WR coach |
| 2017 | Alabama – Nick Saban | Repeat (11th year) | Yes | |
| 2018 | Clemson – Dabo Swinney | Repeat (10th year) | No (first-time HC) | |
| 2019 | LSU – Ed Orgeron | 4th year | Yes | Ole Miss interim |
| 2020 | Alabama – Nick Saban | Repeat (14th year) | Yes | |
| 2021 | Georgia – Kirby Smart | 6th year | No (first-time HC) | Saban disciple, blank check at UGA |
| 2022 | Georgia – Kirby Smart | Repeat (7th year) | No (first-time HC) | |
| 2023 | Michigan – Jim Harbaugh | 9th year | Yes | Stanford, 49ers |
| 2024 | Ohio State – Ryan Day | 6th year | No (first-time HC) | Inherited Urban Meyer machine |
The Numbers Don’t Lie — Experience Dominates Championship Success
25 national titles
6 won by first-time head coaches (excluding repeats)
18 won by coaches with prior head-coaching experience
Key points:
– Since 2000, only 6 first-time head coaches have won a national championship.
– Of those 6, two have repeated (Swinney and Smart), and one (Day) is well on his way to repeating.
– Only 2 (Stoops and Coker) won within the first three years, while Swinney, Smart, and Day each took 6 years or more.
– Each of the 6 first-time head coaches inherited programs with stacked rosters, facilities, and/or financial support.
What About Conference Titles and Playoff Runs?
Right out the gate, if Penn State goes with an internal hire such as Terry Smith, their chances of winning a national championship, historically speaking, are low.
But, what about competing with Ohio State, Oregon, and other B1G powerhouses for conference championships? What about getting to the national championship?
Penn State fans are painfully familiar with Marcus Freeman, who led Notre Dame to a win over Penn State in the Orange Bowl in 2024.
Freeman was an internal hire, and he has had remarkable success. His four and a half years at Notre Dame have produced a 41-12 record, a 3-1 playoff record, and numerous bowl games.
Freeman looks like he could join our list of six coaches to win a national championship.
On the flip side, Brent Venables, the first-time head coach at Oklahoma, has an overall record of 31-19 in three and a half seasons and three bowl game losses.
These two examples highlight the risk of hiring a head coach who doesn’t have previous experience. Many times, a program is stabilized by an internal hire without head coaching experience, but the ceiling is not elevated. The ceiling typically hovers around a 0.500-0.750 record, like we’ve seen from Sam Pittman (Arkansas), Eliah Drinkwitz (Missouri), and Billy Napier (Florida).
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What This Means for Penn State and Terry Smith
The James Franklin-led Nittany Lions were consistently solid and consistently disappointing.
The floor for this team has been high, but if Penn State wants to raise the ceiling, they must find a coach with experience.
The safe answer can’t possibly be the answer for Pat Kraft and company.
Penn State Coaching Search Hot Board Narrows: Who’s Still in the Running After Major Extensions?
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- What History Says About Penn State Hiring Terry Smith … And Why the Risk Is Real - November 26, 2025
- Penn State Football: Terry Smith has Risen to the Moment, But Does he Raise the Ceiling? - November 24, 2025
- Penn State’s Next Head Coach: What the Nittany Lions Need in Post-James Franklin Era - November 22, 2025
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