No. 8 Penn State Football at West Virginia Week 1 betting preview and prediction

 

Penn State Football.

West Virginia.

Morgantown.

Let’s get right to the numbers and a prediction for Saturday’s opener.

The betting line

Point spread: Penn State -8.5.

Money line: Penn State -285, West Virginia +230.

Over/under: 48.5.

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Penn State key numbers

Season record (2023): 10-3 (7-2 Big Ten). Against the spread (2023): 9-4. Scoring offense: 36.2 ppg (No. 12 nationally). Scoring defense: 13.5 ppg (No. 3). Passing offense: 215.0 ypg (No. 77). Rushing offense: 184.8 ypg (No. 28). Third downs (offense): 40.8% (No. 54). Third downs (defense): 30.2% (No. 11). Sacks: 3.77 spg (No. 1).

West Virginia key numbers

Season record (2023): 9-4 (6-3 Big 12). Against the spread (2023): 8-5. Scoring offense: 31.5 ppg (No. 38). Scoring defense: 26.2 ppg (No. 62). Passing offense: 205.7 ypg (No. 89). Rushing offense: 228.9 ypg (No. 3). Third downs (offense): 39.7% (No. 61). Third downs (defense): 38.6% (No. 61). Sacks: 2.54 spg (No. 29).

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Penn State game-breakers

RBs Kaytron Allen/Nick Singleton: Allen is the steadier runner of the two, but Singleton is the bigger home run threat. Expect heavy doses of both in a road environment and season opener with a first-year coordinator calling plays.

TE Tyler Warren: James Franklin calls the former high school quarterback “the most complete tight end in the country,” and he should be a major weapon in the passing game now as the Lions’ TE1. He’ll also do standout work as a blocker.

DE Abdul Carter: Makes the move to DE from LB, where he should have a bigger direct impact on games. That impact might be more in the TFL category than sacks against run-heavy WVU.

West Virginia game breakers

QB Garrett Greene: The 5-foot-11 senior impacted last season’s 38-15 loss to Penn State more with his legs (71 yards, TD) than his arm (16/27 for 162 yards). That might be the case again, but if WVU can’t threaten the Lions’ secondary, its odds of winning shrinks.

RBs Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson: Everything will flow through this thunder-and-lightning duo, which wasn’t the case when these two teams met last September. A native of York, Pa., White becomes more dangerous if Donaldson is successful softening up the defense.

OT Wyatt Milum: Mountaineers could throw different looks at the Lions in the run game, while the passing game focuses on getting the ball out quick to neutralize PSU’s rush. Still, Milum vs. Abdul Carter and/or Dani Dennis-Sutton will be must-see TV.

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Key themes

Penn State’s new coordinators: What the Lions offense and defense will look like under Andy Kotelnicki and Tom Allen, respectively, isn’t yet known, but they’ll both be challenged to direct their new units against a dangerous opponent in front of a fired-up crowd.

Drew Allar’s poise: Success from Allen and Singleton on the ground will create opportunities for Allar in the passing game. The Mountaineers could be vulnerable down the field, so it’s up to Allar and his playmakers to not miss.

Prediction

The guess here is that Penn State’s D will do some bending, but the WVU passing game doesn’t have the chops to make the Lions pay in the red zone. Too much talent here for the Lions, who have been largely successful in early-season non-conference games.

The pick: Penn State 30, West Virginia 17.

MORE: Burning Questions Penn State Must Answer vs. West Virginia

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