College Football Playoff: What the CFP Committee Got Right, What They Got Wrong
Sunday afternoon, the College Football Playoff Committee set the final field which included No. 6 seed Penn State Football.
During ESPN’s bloated four-hour-long show, there were plenty of discussions about the seeding, who got in, and who got left out.
Some arguments made sense, while others were completely absurd.
Well, the good news is that I have a voice in the matter. I mean, what can go wrong when a senior wrestling contributor is about to launch into a diatribe about college football?
On second thought, hold off on your answer to that question. At least hear me out before you start blasting me on social media.
So for the ease of it, let’s start with what the College Football Playoff Committee got right.
What the CFP Committee got right
To further make this easier, here is a list of the teams I feel were properly ranked by the committee. To clarify, the number in parentheses is each team’s actual final ranking, not the seeding:
-Oregon (No. 1)
-Georgia (No. 2)
-Tennessee (No. 7)
-Indiana (No. 8)
-Boise State (No. 9)
-SMU (No. 10)
-Alabama (No. 11)
-Arizona State (No. 12)
-Miami (No. 13)
-Clemson (No. 16)
For obvious reasons, the committee got Oregon and Georgia right.
The Ducks were undefeated and B1G champions and the Bulldogs were the SEC champs. Additionally, slotting Tennessee, IU, and Boise State between 7-9 respectively felt right when looking at their entire body of work.
You could make an argument that Indiana should have been higher since they only had a single loss to Ohio State. But when your best win was against a 7-5 Michigan team, then you don’t have much of a leg to stand on.
Right or wrong it was Tennessee’s 24-17 win at home against Alabama that vaulted them to their final spot. And it’s only a matter of flip-flopping the two so to me it’s not egregious.
Boise State at No. 9, Arizona State at No. 12, and Clemson at No. 16 also makes sense.
Yes, Boise only had a single loss on the season, but when they play the majority of their season against the vaunted Mountain West conference, it doesn’t really say much. Nebraska would have also run through a schedule of Hawai’i, San Diego State, Nevada, Wyoming, and San Jose State.
Additionally, I feel Boise’s best game of the year was a 37-34 loss to Oregon early in the season. Other than Ohio State, this was Oregon’s closest game of the season and the Broncos were able to score the most points against the Duck’s defense. That is until Penn State piled up 37 in their loss in the B1G Championship game.
As for Arizona State, they boat-raced Iowa State 45-19 in the Big 12 Championship game, so that was obviously good. However what wasn’t great for them was their two regular-season losses to Texas Tech and Cincinnati. Woof. So ranking them 12 seems right.
Like Arizona State, Clemson also qualified for the 2024 CFP due to them beating SMU in the ACC Championship game. And when you factor in a 34-3 drubbing at the hands of Georgia early in the season, along with losses to Louisville and South Carolina, slotting them at 16 also feels accurate.
SMU/Alabama/Miami
In the case between SMU, Alabama, and Miami, I again feel the committee got this right.
The committee stated numerous times during the year, the CFP committee indicated they would not punish teams if they lost in their respective conference championships.
And the committee was true to their word. SMU lost 34-31 to Clemson and the committee opted to put them in over both Alabama and Miami. But when you take a deeper dive into their individual bodies of work, it also makes sense to include the Mustangs.
SMU lost two games during the year to teams with a combined 20-5 record (BYU and Clemson). Alabama racked up three losses to teams with a combined record of 22-14 (Vandy, Tennessee, Oklahoma).
Going a step further, it was Bama’s 24-3 loss to Oklahoma which is the most damning.
This year’s version of the Sooners was simply not a good team. Heck, they were barely mediocre. So, when the Crimson Tide plopped down a paltry three points in this matchup, it also signaled to me that Alabama was far from a good team. Do you know how many times a Nick Saban-led Alabama team put up three points during his tenure?
Zero.
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To me, the case wasn’t between SMU and Alabama, rather it was between SMU and Miami. Alabama only got the benefit of the doubt due to their name alone.
Did the Hurricanes lose two games at the absolute worst time? Yes. However their losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse weren’t “bad losses” in any shape or form. Georgia Tech took Georgia to eight overtimes and they played a chunk of the season without their top two quarterbacks. Plus Syracuse finished the season 9-3 and had one of the more lethal arial attacks in the country.
All Miami had to do was win one of those games and they made the ACC Championship game and they would have made the playoff. But they didn’t.
What the CFP Committee got wrong
Now let’s look at what I feel the committee got wrong:
-Texas (No. 3)
-Penn State (No. 4)
-Notre Dame (No. 5)
-Ohio State (No. 6)
Did I just indicate I wasn’t too worried about teams being off by a single spot? Yes, yes I did. Am I now going to completely contradict myself? You betcha!
But I think I have good justification for these, so hear me out.
As with SMU, the CFP committee did not punish either Texas or Penn State for losing in their conference championship games.
Plenty of SEC homers who watched that championship game cheered and blurted out how good of a defensive battle it was. And that Georgia won a tough, hard-fought contest.
Well, I’m here to say something different.
Was it a low-scoring game? Of course.
However, my eyes saw two offenses that left a lot to be desired. On one side you have a former five-star QB recruit (Quinn Ewers) who could not have been any more underwhelming. Then on the other side, you have an up-and-down quarterback (Carson Beck) struggle to 7/13 for 56 yards in the first half.
Beck then appeared to severely injure his throwing arm on a Hail Mary attempt at the end of the half. He sat out the remainder of the game.
Therefore, I feel like the narrative shouldn’t have been “Texas lost a defensive battle to Georgia”. Rather it should have been “Texas lost to a two-loss Georgia team with their backup quarterback”. Furthermore, Texas lost in overtime after Georgia moved the ball down to the 14-yard line. They then proceeded to run the ball three straight times to get into the endzone and win the game.
Georgia was never going to throw the ball in that situation. The fans in attendance knew it, the people watching new it, the Texas coaching staff knew it, and the Texas players knew it. Yet they were such a good team that they had to score 10 fourth-quarter points against a backup QB just to force overtime. And then in overtime, they lost the game when they knew exactly what was coming at them.
Based on this, it only makes sense to have Penn State at No. 3 and Texas at No. 4. As it currently stands, Texas is slated to face the lowest-ranked team in the playoffs (No. 16) and then the next lowest-ranked team in the second round (No. 12 Arizona State). Obviously Penn State has a favorable matchup between SMU and then Boise State in the second round. But if I could choose, I would much rather take Clemson and Arizona State.
Either way, I’m sure the Nittany Lion fans are happy with their draw.
Worst loss of the year?
My next gripe has to do with Notre Dame and where they continually appeared in the rankings.
I know a lot of people could point to Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech or Ohio State’s loss to Michigan as the worst losses of the season. Which is fine, that’s their opinion. But I’m here to say they’re wrong.
The single worst loss of the entire college football season was Notre Dame’s second game of the season when they somehow fell to Northern Illinois 16-14.
The Fighting Irish were 30-point favorites and they went out and laid a gigantic egg on their home turf to a team that finished 7-5. Northern Illinois then went on to lose games to perennial juggernauts Buffalo, Toledo, Ball State, and Miami (Ohio).
Yet Notre Dame was awarded the overall No. 5 seed and a matchup against inter-state “rival” IU. Which makes for an intriguing matchup, that much is for sure.
However, I would argue that ND’s one loss to a bad MAC team should have almost completely eliminated them from the playoffs entirely. Adding to the fact they played a soft regular season schedule and my point should stand even more.
At the very least, Notre Dame should be ranked lower than Ohio State. That way they should have a tougher first-round opponent (Tennessee) as punishment for the mind-boggling loss. But whatever, the committee made their decision.
Larger issue?
By and large, the CFP committee got it right.
However, I want to point out that they got it right based on the parameters of the rules in place.
But, this brings me to another point I would like to make: In what world does it make sense that Texas has an infinitely easier path to the Final Four than both the overall No. 1 seed Oregon and the No. 2 seed Georgia?
The same goes for Penn State. Like, how does that compute?
The answer is simple. It doesn’t.
Do you know the real answer to the question?
Well if you shouted out the words “money”, then you would be 100% correct. Shocking. It’s all about money.
What I’m talking about are the asinine rules which automatically give the four highest conference champions a first-round bye and give the highest five conference champions an automatic bid.
So, this is how a No. 9 seed and a No. 12 seed get a first-round bye. *shaking my head*
Going back to money, why do we think they put these rules in place? Well, if they didn’t put them in, then the conference championship games would be almost irrelevant.
Think about it.
There could be many scenarios in which it would be detrimental for a team to even compete in a conference championship game. Key players could get hurt, an additional loss could knock them out of CFP contention, or they could be blown out which is never good.
The powers that be put the automatic bids in for conference champions so they could still get eyeballs for the conference games. Eyeballs equal money. And we can’t have it if people aren’t interested in a Clemson/SMU or Arizona State/Iowa State matchup. Nope. That would mean the rich wouldn’t get richer. So they have to put rules in place to make these games matter.
Furthermore, this is exactly why the CFP committee said they wouldn’t punish teams if they lost their conference champion game.
Hey, I have a novel idea. If we’re going to go through the stupid exercise of having an entire committee of people ranking teams each week late in the season, then why don’t we take their rankings and actually use them?
Remove the automatic bids, take the top 12 teams, slap them into a 12 team bracket, and presto. Seems simple enough, right?
More Penn State News from Nittany Central
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Education: Penn State University
Location: State College, PA
Even though he had no prior journalism experience, Chris has now covered Penn State Wrestling and Penn State Football for the past three years, including as the Penn State Wrestling Beat Writer for VictoryBellRings.com, part of the FanSided network.
And it's clear he also likes constant torture as he's been a PSU Basketball fan for way too long.
Several years back, Chris made the seamless transition from PGA Professional to computer programmer and thoroughly enjoys following and writing about all things related to Penn State sports during his spare time.
- College Football Playoff: What the CFP Committee Got Right, What They Got Wrong - December 11, 2024
- Penn State Wrestling: Nittany Lions outclass No. 23 Lehigh 36-3 - December 8, 2024
- Penn State Wrestling: Carter Starocci gunning to be in a class by himself - December 8, 2024