As we hit the halfway point of the 2024 college football season, it’s time to evaluate Penn State quarterback Drew Allar’s development and his standing in the Heisman race.
Has Penn State Football’s junior quarterback lived up to expectations?
Let’s take a closer look at how Allar is measuring up to the Heisman metrics I laid out earlier in the year.
Preseason Predictions: Where Does Allar Stand?
Back in the preseason, I closed my assessment of Drew Allar with this bold prediction:
“For those who scoff at the idea of Drew Allar as a Heisman candidate or top NFL draft pick, there’s a strong possibility you’ll see his name alongside the nation’s elite quarterbacks by the end of 2024.”
Now, six games in, it’s time to revisit that forecast. Has Allar proven his doubters wrong, and is he positioning himself as a legitimate Heisman contender?
The Metrics: What Allar Needed to Do
To match the accomplishments of the last three Heisman-winning quarterbacks, I outlined several key areas where Allar would need to improve in 2024:
- 8 additional touchdowns over 2023
- 400 more passing yards compared to 2023
- A 10% increase in completion rate over 2023
Allar’s 2024 Performance So Far
As of now, here’s how Drew Allar stacks up statistically:
- Touchdowns: Allar has thrown for 14 passing touchdowns, averaging 2.3 per game. At this point last season, he had 15 TDs, so he’s slightly behind but trending positively.
- Completion Percentage: Allar’s accuracy has taken a notable leap. He’s completing 70.9% of his passes compared to 65% last season. His precision is improving, aided by a more polished wide receiver corps—just as predicted.
- Yards Per Game: Allar is currently averaging 270 passing yards per game, up from 223 at this point in 2023.
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How Does This Project Moving Forward?
Outside of a looming showdown with Ohio State, Penn State has a favorable schedule, with an estimated 82% win probability in the remaining games. If Allar keeps producing at his current pace, here’s what we can expect by season’s end:
- Passing Yards: Allar is on pace for 3,240 yards, which comfortably surpasses the 3,000-yard mark he needs.
- Touchdowns: He’s trending toward 27.6 passing touchdowns on the season, just shy of the 33-touchdown benchmark. However, this number doesn’t account for rushing scores, and a strong finish to the season could push him closer to that goal.
- Completion Percentage: Allar’s completion rate stands at 70.9%, above the 70% threshold that’s critical for Heisman consideration. There’s every reason to believe this number will remain steady or even improve slightly.
The Ohio State Factor
While Ohio State poses the biggest test on Penn State’s schedule, it’s unlikely that Allar’s performance will drop off significantly.
In fact, a strong showing in such a high-stakes matchup could only bolster his Heisman campaign. Additionally, if Penn State makes the College Football Playoff, Allar will have one or two more opportunities to pad his stats, further elevating his profile.
Final Thoughts: Allar’s Heisman Outlook
Barring any unforeseen setbacks, Drew Allar is well on track to match the production of recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks.
Allar’s progress as both a passer and leader has been impressive, and credit goes to head coach James Franklin and his staff for nurturing Allar’s growth in his second year as a starter.
For Penn State, the sky’s the limit.
Drew Allar is carving out a fantastic junior season, and his Heisman candidacy remains very much alive as the Nittany Lions chase a Big Ten title and more.
He has been recognized for his work as a photographer and has also contributed to various publications including PennLive and The Weather Channel.
Brad is an Air Force veteran, coach and competitive runner that grew up a Nittany Lions fan as his family is originally from the State College area.
His diverse skillset and experiences provide for interesting perspectives on the college football, and sports topics of the day.