How College Football Playoff Seeding Could Work Out for Penn State Football
Penn State Nittany Football got an unexpected surprise Saturday as the Michigan Wolverines knocked off the Ohio State Buckeyes to send the Nittany Lions to their first Big Ten Championship Game since 2016. The Buckeyes’ monumental loss not only helps put Penn State in a position to compete for the Big Ten title this season but also could help the Nittany Lions with seeding in the College Football Playoff for a run at the national championship.
Here are the ways that the Big Ten championship game could impact the Nittany Lions seeding for the college football playoff later this month.
If Penn State Beats Oregon for the Big Ten Championship
The Nittany Lions have an enormous opportunity in front of them this weekend as they face the Oregon Ducks in Indianapolis.
The Ducks will be the toughest opponent Penn State has faced this season as the number one ranked team in the nation for the latter half of the season. Penn State is an early 3.5-point underdog according to FanDuel sportsbook, but ESPN’s analytics give the Nittany Lions a 53.8 percent chance to win.
If the Nittany Lions manage to knock off the Oregon Ducks Saturday night, it would be the biggest win for Penn State in the James Franklin era, by far, and position the Nittany Lions extremely well heading into the college football playoff.
With a Nittany Lions win Saturday, Penn State Football would have a great case for the number one seed in the College Football Playoff ranking on selection Sunday.
Penn State would have the best win in the country, knocking off number one-ranked Oregon for the Big Ten championship. Penn State’s loss to Ohio State doesn’t look as good as it once did before Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, but it is still a loss to a team in the playoff field.
The only team that would have an argument to be seeded above Penn State if the Nittany Lions win the Big Ten would be Texas, if the Longhorns avenge their only loss of the season against Georgia in the SEC championship game. Texas would not have a better win than Penn State, but has a slightly higher strength of schedule and strength of record over the Nittany Lions. The Longhorns are also ranked above the Nittany Lions at the moment, sitting at number three in last week’s college football playoff rankings, one spot ahead of Penn State.
Depending on how the SEC championship game plays out, Penn State would be guaranteed either the number one or number two seed in the college football playoff with a win over Oregon Saturday and a coveted first-round bye.
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If Penn State Loses to Oregon in Big Ten Championship
The seeding becomes less clear if the Nittany Lions fall to the Oregon Ducks in Saturday’s championship game.
As of last week’s rankings, Penn State would have occupied the six seed in the college football playoff. However, in those rankings, Ohio State occupied the five seed, which is now out the window. Where Penn State lands in Tuesday’s college football playoff rankings could have a large impact on where Penn State is seeded in the final rankings next Sunday.
For weeks, network analysts have been comparing the resumes of Penn State and Notre Dame each week. Notre Dame has a horrendous loss to NIU early in the season but has looked good in the weeks since the loss. Penn State has the tougher strength of schedule, best win, and better loss than Notre Dame.
As long as the committee continues to keep Penn State above Notre Dame in this week’s rankings, Penn State has a path to the coveted five seed when the playoff starts, even with a loss in the Big Ten championship game.
While there is a chance the college football playoff committee could drop Penn State for a loss to Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, the committee should not want to reward Notre Dame for being scared to join a conference and play a difficult 13th game in a conference championship. With Notre Dame sitting at home this weekend, the committee could keep Penn State seeded above the Fighting Irish even if Penn State picks up a second loss to Oregon in the Big Ten championship.
If, however, the committee punishes Penn State for playing a 13th game if the Nittany Lions lose to Oregon, Penn State should still have a good shot at hosting a playoff game later in December.
From the latest AP rankings, Penn State will be competing with Notre Dame, Tennessee, Ohio State, and the loser of the SEC championship game (either Texas or Georgia) for the four home playoff game slots in this season’s college football playoff. Even if the Nittany Lions were to lose to Oregon, Penn State should still be ranked above at least Tennessee with the 13th data point on the schedule. Penn State’s head-to-head loss to Ohio State puts the committee in a tough position regarding the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions in the poll, and the committee could go either way on that seeding with a Penn State loss.
If Georgia is to lose in the SEC championship game, the Bulldogs will surely not be hosting a playoff game, however, Texas absolutely is in the mix for the five or six seed with a loss to Georgia.
Predicting Penn State’s Most Likely College Football Playoff Seeding
At the moment, my prediction would be either the five or six seed in the college football playoff if the Nittany Lions lose to Oregon and Texas beats Georgia. If the Bulldogs upset the Longhorns in the SEC championship game, I would expect the Nittany Lions to slide down one slot to the six or seven seed.
Penn State Football has a monumental opportunity to change the trajectory of the Nittany Lions football program this Saturday against the Oregon Ducks. With a win, the Nittany Lions are headed for heights not seen this century for the Nittany Lions, including a potential number-one ranking for the first time since 1997. A loss still puts the Nittany Lions firmly in the mix for a home playoff game, but the tighter turnaround for a playoff game later this month and the narrative around the Nittany Lions program make things more difficult for an extended postseason run.
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