Under head coach James Franklin, Penn State Football is 2-6 following the Nittany Lions’ bye week in his nine years as the head coach at Penn State.
Under Franklin, the Nittany Lions have not won after the bye week since 2017, when Penn State beat Michigan 42-13 in the White Out.
The Nittany Lions 2023 schedule sets up perfectly to buck that trend as Penn State faces the University of Massachusetts out of the bye week.
Now, Penn State’s record after the bye week could be a bit misleading, as Penn State has faced their hardest opponents, Michigan and Ohio State, five times after the bye week since 2014.
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However, the Nittany Lions lone two wins during that period did come against Ohio State and Michigan, in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
Three of the bye week losses have occurred in the game after another Penn State loss, another common occurrence for Penn State under Franklin, as Penn State has followed its first loss of the season with another loss the following game in five of the nine seasons under James Franklin.
However, the 2023 schedule shapes up to buck both trends for Penn State.
After the bye week this season, Penn State welcomes the University of Massachusetts to Happy Valley for a homecoming game. With Penn State starting Big Ten on the road earlier this season in Week 3, Penn State was able to push the non-conference game with the Minutemen to week 7 after the Nittany Lions bye week.
In a game against the 1-5 Minutemen where ESPN gives the Nittany Lions a 99 percent chance to win, Penn State can shake off any rust the bye week allowed the team to build and re-calibrate its offense for a strong second half run.
Even if the Nittany Lions start slow after the break, the sheer talent gap between the two programs should allow the Nittany Lions time to get going and pull away for a comfortable win, as Penn State holds a 49-9 blue chip recruit advantage over the Minutemen according to 247 Sports.
On the second trend, Penn State’s schedule also sets up favorably to avoid cascading losses in 2023. Even if the Nittany Lions were to lose to either Ohio State or Michigan, Penn State’s schedule works out to give Penn State very winnable games in the following week, against Indiana and Rutgers, respectively.
Against Indiana the week after Penn State travels to Columbus, Penn State is given a 97.1 percent chance to win according to EPSN. The week after Michigan comes to Happy Valley, Penn State hosts Rutgers in a game that ESPN gives the Nittany Lions a 93.1 percent chance to win.
While the Nittany Lions and Penn State fans hope to finish the season unbeaten, avoiding turning one loss into two could be key in keeping championship hopes alive should Penn State lose one of the two against Michigan or Ohio State.
Even with the University of Massachusetts coming to town next week, all eyes will be on the Nittany Lions matchup the following week in Columbus.
If Penn State wants to challenge the Buckeyes and keep their Big Ten Championship hopes within their own control, Penn State needs to take advantage of the favorable post-bye week schedule and shake off any rust, get the offense into a rhythm, and take advantage of extra rest that you can get starters (especially the defense) before heading out to face the Buckeyes.
If the Nittany Lions are to reach the College Football Playoff or the Big Ten Championship, bucking these two trends will be key to keeping the Nittany Lions in control of their own destiny.
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Education: Saint Vincent College, Penn State Law School
Location: Washington, DC
Experience:Robert Casturo has covered Penn State football for NittanyCentral since 2022. Casturo previously covered Penn State football through a social media presence (@PSU_FB_Thoughts on X) since 2019. Casturo earned his bachelor's degree from Saint Vincent College in 2015, where he was a punter for 1 season on the Saint Vincent College football team and worked in the athletic department for 2 years as a student manager. Casturo earned his JD from Penn State Law in 2018 where he was a senior editor of the Penn State Law Review.
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