How Far Does Penn State Football Need to Go in the Playoff for 2024 to be a ‘Success’?
Despite losing the Big Ten championship Saturday night, Penn State Football is headed to the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history, and has a very favorable draw in front of them in the 12-team tournament.
After earning the six seed in this year’s playoff, the Nittany Lions have already begun preparation for their first opponent SMU for the first year of the on-campus first-round College Football Playoff games.
The Nittany Lions are favored by more than a touchdown at the moment, but Penn State will have to handle business against the ACC runner-up to keep their national championship hopes alive.
However, even if the Nittany Lions fall short of the ultimate prize, the season can still be a success, but how is “success” defined for James Franklin and company with the current playoff path?
Midway through the season after Penn State’s loss to Ohio State, Penn State fans did not expect to wind up in Indianapolis for the first time since 2016. However, the Nittany Lions were not able to come away with hardware in a tight-fought game against the number one Oregon Ducks.
Franklin’s squad now pivots to the ultimate goal, a College Football Playoff run in the Nittany Lions’ first-ever college football playoff experience.
As far as determining a successful season, Penn State’s draw for the playoff is both a blessing and a curse.
Penn State hosts the ACC runner-up SMU in the first round, and then with a win, would face third-ranked Mountain West champion Boise State in the second round.
How Far Must Penn State Football Advance to Change The Narrative Around James Franklin’s Program?
After the bracket was announced, fans around took to social media to blast the committee for giving Penn State the easiest path to the semifinal of any non-top four seed because they see Boise State and SMU as two of the weaker opponents in the field.
Unfortunately for James Franklin and Penn State, this means that, despite both SMU and Boise State being top 12 teams in the country and earning spots in the college football playoff, the Nittany Lions will garner next to no national respect for beating either team in the postseason.
This complicates the question about a successful season for Penn State. Normally, for a program like Penn State, a run to the national semifinals in the college football playoff would be seen as an unquestionable success. Even winning a playoff game could be a successful season depending on roster construction.
However, this year it really seems like the Nittany Lions must win at least two games and potentially a third to make the season successful and flip the narrative on Penn State and James Franklin.
Even during the initial interview with James Franklin after the playoff field was announced, ESPN ran a graphic noting that James Franklin is only 1-14 against top-five opponents at Penn State, after dropping the Big Ten championship against Oregon this weekend. James Franklin’s lone win over a top-five opponent came all the way back in 2016 against number two Ohio State before Franklin’s lone Big Ten title.
However, now with the field setup the way it is, Franklin has limited ability to change this narrative without a deep playoff run. Despite the seeding, SMU and Boise State ranked near the bottom of the top 10 in the final college football playoff ranking, 9th and 10th respectively. In order to even face a top five opponent, Penn State would need to make the semifinals and hope to meet Georgia or Notre Dame.
Barring a major injury, the Nittany Lions must make the final four with a favorable schedule this season to help flip the narrative and earn more national respect moving forward. James Franklin has taken enough heat for not breaking through to the elite of college football that the Nittany Lions must change the narrative around the program by earning a final four spot and potentially a spot in the national championship.
Even though neither SMU or Boise State are ranked in the top five, being one of the final four teams remaining in contention for the national championship would be a success for Penn State this season. Anything more would be icing on the cake.
If Penn State is able to rematch with either Oregon or Ohio State in the national championship game, or knock off SEC-powerhouse Georgia in the semifinal, it could go a long way to flipping the narrative on James Franklin and the Nittany Lions this season.
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