Penn State Football: Ranking Difficulty of Games vs. New B1G Teams

The College Football Playoff is not the only thing that is expanding in 2024, as the Big Ten is set to add four new members to the conference by the time the season kicks off in August, creating a new path for Penn State Football.

Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA, all replacing their starting quarterbacks and three out of four replacing head coaches, will all join the Big Ten this fall. Penn State will see three of these schools, Washington, USC, and UCLA, in 2024, avoiding Oregon on the schedule until 2025.

From a quick glance at the way-too-early rankings and Vegas odds for next season, the Nittany Lions luck out avoiding the Oregon Ducks in 2024. With the other three new schools looming this fall, here is a ranking of the difficulty of each game:

1) Penn State Football at USC

USC wins the ranking for the most difficult of these three games for Penn State in 2024, mostly because it is the Nittany Lions first trip to the new Big Ten western schools, playing on the road against USC in the Colosseum Saturday October 12^th.

It is also the Nittany Lions second road game of the season, following four straight home games after the Nittany Lions’ season opener in Morgantown against West Virginia. USC is also the only school on this list that retained its head coach from 2023, with Lincoln Riley set to return for a third season at USC. Although the Trojans only finished 8-5 in 2023, the Trojan offense was deadly, ranking 11^th in total offense and 3^rd in points per game.

With D’Anton Lynn set to take over at defensive coordinator for the Trojans in 2024, if the unit can produce better results than 2023, USC could be a force to be reckoned with in the new Big Ten.

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2) Penn State Football vs. Washington

Despite playing in the National Championship game in 2023, Washington is quite low on many lists heading into 2024, but for good reason as the Huskies lost most of their offensive weapons, key pieces of their defense, and their head coach heading into 2024.

Washington’s over under win total is actually the same as USC heading into 2024 at 7.5, but USC’s nonconference schedule is much harder than Washington’s with Notre Dame and LSU.

The Huskies’ roster isn’t what it was in 2024, but with very experienced SEC transfer Will Rogers under center, the Huskies can certainly pull an upset next season if Penn State is not careful.

3) Penn State Football vs. UCLA

UCLA is entering the Big Ten and heading to Happy Valley at the wrong time for the Bruins, as former UCLA coach Chip Kelly left UCLA to become the offensive coordinator at Ohio State after the coaching carousel had nearly finished.

When the dust settled, UCLA got an intriguing candidate in DeShaun Foster, but did lose former five-star quarterback Dante Moore and 10 other players to the transfer portal. Vegas is not projecting UCLA to make much noise in the Big Ten next season, with an over under win total of 5.5, forcing the Bruins to go over to even reach a bowl game.

With a new staff and breaking in a new quarterback, the Nittany Lions get UCLA at the right time and should not have an issue with the Bruins in early October.

Penn State lucks out not having to play Oregon, whose win total for 2024 is a whopping 10.5, tied with Ohio State for the most in the Big Ten.

Without Oregon and Michigan on the schedule, if Penn State is able to take care of USC and Wisconsin on the road, the road to the Big Ten championship could come down to Penn State’s date with Ohio State on November 2^nd. If Penn State is able to sweep these three new Big Ten schools, it will go a long way toward Penn State’s Big Ten championship hopes and Penn State’s playoff resume.

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