Penn State Wrestling is only three days away from the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships in Kansas City, MIssouri.
In our first installment of “Projecting the Path”, we took a look at what potentially lays ahead for Braeden Davis (125), Aaron Nagao (133), Beau Bartlett (141), Tyler Kasak (149), and Levi Haines (157). And if you are guessing this edition is going to wrap up the 165 to 285 groups, then good guess!
Because that’s what we’re going to do.
So with that, let’s take a look at the back end of the Nittany Lion starting lineup and their projected path to winning some NCAA hardware.
And away we go!
Penn state Wrestling Path to National Championships 165-285
165
No. 2 Mitchell Mesenbrink (22-0)
1st Round matchup – No. 2 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) vs. No. 31 Maxx Mayfield (NW)
Key matchup – Finals – No. 2 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) vs. No. 1 Keegan O’Toole (MIZZ)
Is it a bit presumptuous of me to pick the finals as Mitchell Mesenbrink’s “Key matchup”?
Yeah, maybe it is. But I just don’t see any roadblocks in the bottom half of the bracket.
Julian Ramirez is the No. 3 seed at 165, however he has a history of underperformances in the NCAA Championships. It wouldn’t shock me one bit if he gets upended at some point before the semifinals. And the guy who will probably do that is Iowa’s Mikey Caliendo.
How was Mesenbrink done against him this year?
My point exactly.
And both Oklahoma State’s No. 7 seed Izzak Olejnik and Michigan’s No. 10 seed Cameron Amine aren’t going to topple psycho. So that’s why I have him in the finals.
If there is indeed a Mesenbrink/O’Toole finals, then it could very well be one of the best matches of the entire weekend. Think Mesenbrink/Hamiti but on steroids.
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174
No. 9 Carter Starocci (12-2)
1st Round matchup – No. 9 Carter Starocci (PSU) vs. No. 24 Andrew Sparks (MINN)
Key matchup – ALL OF THEM
Hey, I’m not questioning anything about Carter Starocci’s ability, mental toughness, or drive to succeed. But with someone coming back from a knee injury that only happened a month ago, anything can happen.
Which is why every single time he goes to the mat this week is going to be key. I have no doubt he can blow through the field if he doesn’t suffer any setbacks.
But this is wrestling and there is no way you can fully protect your knee throughout the course of a match. Let alone in the five total matches it takes to win an NCAA title.
So, if Starocci is somehow able to bring home his fourth NCAA title, the first person to ever do this in Penn State history, then there will have to be a bit of luck in his corner.
And that’s why I say only a “bit”. In the end this is Carter Starocci we’re talking about. Heck he’s already won an NCAA title with a broken hand. You can just add a “bum knee” to the long list of things he’s overcome in his life.
184
No. 6 Bernie Truax (14-4)
1st Round matchup – No. 6 Bernie Truax (PSU) vs. No. 27 Cameron Pine (CLAR)
Key matchup – Quarterfinals – No. 6 Bernie Truax (PSU) vs. No. 3 Dustin Plott (OKST)
The road for Bernie Truax is going to be a really tough this year. The 184 bracket is full of studs.
Right out of the gate Traux gets the MAC runner-up (Pine) and then in the second round he could see the only guy (No. 11 Colton Hawks MIZZ) who gave No. 2 Isaiah Salazar a loss this season.
And that’s all before Truax would get to the quarterfinals. And there he would most likely see two-time All-American and Big 12 runner-up Dustin Plott.
It’s going to be a daunting path, however Traux has finished inside of the top four each of the last three seasons. I’m not going to be the one to doubt him or doubt the Penn State staff in getting him ready to do battle.
197
No. 1 Aaron Brooks (17-0)
1st Round matchup – No. 1 Aaron Brooks (PSU) vs. No. 33 Evan Bates (NW)/No. 32 John Crawford (F&M)
Key matchup – Finals – No. 1 Aaron Brooks (PSU) vs. No. 2 Trent Hidlay (NCST)
Yes, I did pick Aaron Brooks’ possible matchup against No. 4 Michael Beard (LEH) as one to “not miss” in my predictions. But that’s not going to be his key matchup.
You could also make a case that his quarterfinals matchup against No. 8 Stephen Buchanan (OU) is interesting. Buchanan put together an impressive 24-2 record this season.
But Aaron Brooks chewed up and spit out many top level wrestlers this year. And he’s going to continue to plow his way to the finals where he’ll face Trent Hidlay for the fourth time in his career.
Brooks will then cap off his amazing Nittany Lion career by going a perfect 4-0 against Hidlay and picking up his fourth straight NCAA title.
285
No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet (15-0)
1st Round matchup – No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU) vs. No. 33 Jordan Greer (OHIO)/No. 32 Nick Willham (IND)
Key matchup – Semifinals – No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU) vs. No. 4 Cohlton Schultz (ASU)
Greg Kerkvliet and Cohlton Schultz have only ever locked horns once in their careers. This was back in the 2021 NCAA Championships where Kerk was somehow able to wrestle following an unbelievable ordeal he dealt with that season.
Schultz took the match 14-8 on that day. However this is a much different Greg Kerkvliet than the one Cohlton saw. This is the Kerk Kong who capped off a perfect regular season and Big Ten Championship tournament.
Kerk won his first ever Big Ten title and was a combined 33-3 in his three matches. And this is before you realize he didn’t really look to be on top of his game a week and a half ago.
That’s a scary thought for everyone else in the 285 bracket.
To see if Kerkvliet is firing on all cylinders, his quarterfinals matchup against Schultz will go a long way in determining it.
MORE: Penn State Predictions for NCAA Wrestling Championships
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Education: Penn State University
Location: State College, PA
Even though he had no prior journalism experience, Chris has now covered Penn State Wrestling and Penn State Football for the past three years, including as the Penn State Wrestling Beat Writer for VictoryBellRings.com, part of the FanSided network.
And it's clear he also likes constant torture as he's been a PSU Basketball fan for way too long.
Several years back, Chris made the seamless transition from PGA Professional to computer programmer and thoroughly enjoys following and writing about all things related to Penn State sports during his spare time.
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