The 2024 Penn State Football season is quickly approaching with the Nittany Lions kicking off in just over two weeks in Morgantown against the Mountaineers.
With Penn State’s expectations sky high to break through into the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history.
To do so, Penn State Football will need to win 10 to 11 games this fall.
With a relatively manageable schedule, even in the newly expanded Big Ten, Penn State’s over-under is set at 9.5 again this season as it was in 2023. Here is a ranking of the toughness of the games this fall on the schedule for the Nittany Lions:
No. 12 – Penn State Football vs. Kent State
Kent State was an abysmal 1-11 in 2023 and may not be much better in 2024, with an over/under of just 2.5 this season. The Nittany Lions have the talent to run over Kent State and get their starters plenty of rest ahead of the Nittany Lions Big Ten opener the following week against Illinois.
No. 11 – Penn State Football vs. Bowling Green
Penn State’s home opener against Bowling Green should be an easy home-opening win for the Nittany Lions. Bowling Green intercepted JJ McCarthy three times against Michigan last season and kept the game surprisingly close, but the talent disparity is still too much to rank this game any higher.
No. 10 – Nittany Lions at Purdue
The Purdue Boilermakers are expected to be one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season, with an over/under in 2024 of just 4.5 games. Even though this game is on the road, this will be Penn State’s easiest conference matchup of the season.
No. 9 – Penn State Football vs. UCLA
Chip Kelly willingly took a demotion inside of the same conference to get away from UCLA this offseason. The Bruins will have an uphill battle to get to bowl eligibility in the new Big Ten conference this fall and playing on the road against Penn State will be a tough matchup for a first time head coach.
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No. 8 – Penn State Football vs. Illinois
For only the second time in the last decade, Penn State will start the Big Ten slate off at home in 2024. The Illini gave the Nittany Lions fits last season in Champaign, but at home this game should be much more manageable for the Nittany Lions against an inferior Illinois squad.
No. 7 – Nittany Lions at Minnesota
Minnesota may still be rowing the boat, but that boat has certainly slowed down since the Gophers knocked off the top 10 Nittany Lions in 2019. With a win total of just 5.5 for 2024, Penn State should have the talent to go on the road and take care of the Gophers relatively easily this season.
No. 6 – Penn State Football vs. Washington
This game looks odd being this low after the Huskies just made it to the National Championship game last season. However, after losing a ton of talent to the NFL and the transfer portal, and losing their coach to Alabama, this Washington Huskies team is a shell of last year’s team. Match that with this being Penn State’s annual Whiteout game and the game looks much different than it would have at the end of last season.
No. 5 – Penn State Football vs. Maryland
Penn State ends the season with a familiar Big Ten opponent in Maryland. Penn State has held Maryland’s number since joining the Big Ten and this year should not be different. Penn State gets the Terrapins at home to end the season where the Terrapins should be happy just to be bowl-eligible before arriving in Happy Valley.
No. 4 – Nittany Lions at Wisconsin
Penn State escaped Camp Randall with a one score victory to open the 2021 season. Camp Randall is a tough place to play and the crowd certainly plays a factor. The Badgers are expected to be improved in year two under Luke Fickell and could give the Nittany Loins headaches on the road.
No. 3 – Nittany Lions at West Virginia
Week one with three new offensive coordinators on the road? Seems like a recipe for an upset bid. Penn State should have more talent than West Virginia in 2024, but the Nittany Lions will need to quickly get on the same page in all three phases of the game to avoid starting the season 0-1.
No. 2 – Nittany Lions at USC
This was a tossup with number three West Virginia because of the timing of the two games. USC is a tough opponent and the Nittany Lions will be very far from home in the middle of October in what could be a tough environment. If Penn State picks up a second loss of the season, my bet would be on either USC or WVU.
No. 1 – Penn State Football vs. Ohio State
Who else could fit in this top spot?
Outside of 2016, Ohio State has held Penn State’s number for James Franklin’s entire tenure. There have been mostly close losses in this one sided rivalry, but Penn State has not found a way to get past the Buckeyes in almost a decade. Having the game at Beaver Stadium helps, but Penn State will still need to pull out close to a miracle to knock off one of the top teams in the country in 2024.
With a manageable schedule, the Nittany Lions will look to hit the 11+ win mark in the regular season for the first time under James Franklin this fall.
If the Nittany Lions want to play for the Big Ten championship, 11 wins could be the threshold now that the Big Ten eliminated divisions and Ohio State no longer stands in the Nittany Lions direct path to the Big Ten championship game.
Ten wins should certainly put Penn State in the playoff, but an 11th win would certainly help avoid any issue with the committee leaving out the Nittany Lions for strength of schedule with other ten win teams this fall. For a game-by-game breakdown of the season, here are our predictions for what could be James Franklin’s best season in Happy Valley.
MORE: Why Lavar Arrington Is Convinced James Franklin Will Win a National Championship
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