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NittanyCentral

NittanyCentral delivers expert analysis from veteran reporters and timely updates on Penn State sports, with in-depth coverage of Nittany Lions Football, Wrestling, Basketball, and more.

Beau or Drew: What We Learned from 20 Simulations of Penn State Football vs. Ohio State on EA Sports College Football 25

Drew Allar, Penn State Football, Andy Kotelnicki

Penn State Football faces an interesting issue during one of the biggest weeks of James Franklin’s tenure at Penn State.

As the No. 3 ranked Nittany Lions prepare for the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes, Penn State head coach James Franklin is dealing with an injury to Penn State’s starting quarterback Drew Allar.

Allar seemingly injured his left knee during the second quarter of Penn State’s win over Nebraska last Saturday, missing the second half of the Nittany Lions’ 28-13 comeback win.

Now, with only a week to heal up before Ryan Day and the Buckeyes come to town, Franklin and Penn State have to determine if Allar can play, and if he can, just how effective he can be if he’s not 100 percent.

During his weekly press conference Monday, James Franklin told the media that a decision on Allar’s availability could go all the way up to game time this Saturday.

Instead of waiting until Saturday, however, I decided to simulate Penn State’s game against Ohio State 10 times on EA Sports College Football 25 with Drew Allar and 10 times with Beau Pribula to determine how each fares against the formidable Buckeyes. Here are the results of the simulations.

Parameters

Before getting into the results of the simulations, it is important to lay out the settings for the simulations.

Each game was simulated on All-American difficulty at the noon time slot in Beaver Stadium with 15-minute quarters to most closely simulate Penn State’s game this weekend.

In the game, Penn State holds a 92 overall rating and Ohio State holds a 95 overall rating. Drew Allar’s rating in the game is a 91 overall, while Beau Pribula is rated 76 overall.

During the simulations for Drew Allar, I used the standard Penn State playbook from the game to simulate Penn State’s offense.

However, during the simulations for Beau Pribula, I instead used the spread option playbook, to closer simulate Andy Kotelnicki’s play calling in the second half of the Wisconsin game with Pribula at quarterback.

Other than the playbook and changing out the quarterback on the depth chart, I did not make any other changes to the teams or simulations. Importantly to note, there was not a way to simulate Allar’s injury or potential limitations and so I left his player ratings in the default settings.


Here are the results of the 20 simulations

Drew Allar

Penn State Football, Drew Allar
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar warms up during a timeout in the second half against Michigan Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in State College, Pa.

In the ten simulations involving quarterback Drew Allar, Penn State went 4-6 against the Buckeyes.

Penn State scored an average of 26.2 points per game, scoring over 30 points three times.

Allar averaged 238.7 passing yards, 1.7 touchdown passes, and 1 interception per game in the ten simulations. With Allar at quarterback using Penn State’s standard playbook, Penn State averaged 4.68 yards per rush, 143.1 rushing yards, and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game.

Beau Pribula

In the ten simulations involving quarterback Beau Pribula, Penn State won only once, going 1-9.

Penn State’s offense scored an average of 21.1 points per game, scoring under 15 points in three games. Pribula averaged 169.3 passing yards, 0.9 passing touchdowns, and 1.1 interceptions per game. With Pribula leading a spread option style offense, Penn State averaged 4.2 yards per rush, 147.9 rushing yards, and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game.


Comparison

Over the 20 simulations, Penn State held a better chance to win with Drew Allar at quarterback than Beau Pribula, winning three more simulations under Allar than Beau.

Penn State Football averaged more points per game by 5.1 points with Allar at quarterback, but did average more rushing yards per game under Pribula. Interestingly, Penn State’s offense averaged more yards per rush with Allar at quarterback, potentially because of the higher number of rushes in the spread option style playbook.

Whether Allar or Pribula starts for the Nittany Lions on Saturday remains to be seen.

If Allar can go, the Nittany Lions are likely to play their junior star signal caller, but Andy Kotelnicki’s experience using two quarterbacks at Kansas is interesting this week, as Penn State may run a two-quarterback system even if Allar is healthy to give Ohio State’s defense headaches from an offensive scheme perspective.

MORE: Is Penn State Finally Ready to Breakthrough and Become Elite?

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Robert Shields
Beau or Drew: What We Learned from 20 Simulations of Penn State Football vs. Ohio State on EA Sports College Football 25
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